Twenty-First Century India; Population, Economy, Human Development and the Environment

India’s population has trebled since Independence in 1947 and it seems headed for a total of at least 1.5 billion by 2050. This book examines how population growth will affect India’s future development and discusses how it can manage this last phase of its demographic transition. It draws on 14 authors, some based in universities in the UK and the USA, some based in research institutes in India.

The 16 chapters cover three broad sets of questions. First, what is happening to India’s population in terms of fertility, mortality and urbanization and, drawing from this, what can be said about likely future trends? Second, how does population growth affect economic growth and other aspects of development – for instance, education, living conditions and other aspects of human development? And third, what are the impacts of population growth on food production, energy production and use, the urban environment, and water and common pool resources? The final chapter discusses “lessons and policies” for each of these themes.

Four policy issues are highlighted as being of overarching importance. First, that the country will benefit from slower population growth, so there is an urgent need for higher quality services for reproductive health and family planning, together with supporting measures. Second, the excessive subsidies to electricity and water must be reduced. Third is the challenge presented by water; even where there is agreement on the need to control pollution, regulate the use of groundwater and regulate or price water for irrigation and domestic use, there is no implementable strategy for the country that is backed by the necessary political commitment. And fourth, the importance of addressing atmospheric and chemical pollution as a result of production and transport – and, for the most part, any negative effects on economic growth and growing population can be neutralized by the introduction of clean technologies.
“This is not a pessimistic book, in the sense of finding insuperable difficulties lying ahead. Even with 1.5 billion people, India can become a more prosperous country, with less poverty and better health and education, and a better conserved environment. Whether it does or not, only the people and the government of India can decide” (page 14).