Electoral Territoriality in Southern Africa

THIS BOOK EXPLORES the electoral geography of seven countries in Southern Africa, namely, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia, South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. The research for this book was conducted over several years during the 1990s. In the case of the Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe elections, research took place between 1992 and 1994, and the information was updated for subsequent elections conducted in the late 1990s.

Whereas it is not easy to determine the causes of individual voting behaviour, studies of election results have demonstrated that group political allegiances are related to a variety of factors. Prominent amongst these are the socioeconomic characteristics of an electorate and the spatial context within which their political socialization occurred. This book explores variations in voting behaviour within the above states, with particular reference to the role of the geographically localized influences of regional, ethnic territoriality and urbanism.

In the past, much critical social theory has neglected to examine the role of the geographical variations of human socioeconomic characteristics as a means of explaining political processes and practices, due to an emphasis only on economic determinism. In more recent years, social scientists have formulated theories of space and nationalism which enhance explanations of political behaviour. In the introductory chapter, this book covers some of the literature influencing this change, from the late 1970s to the present day, grouped under the topics “electoral cleavage”, “the role of ethnic nationalism” and “electoral system biases”.

The overall hypotheses under investigation in this study can be summarized as follows. Distinct differences in political affiliation exist at the sub-national level in Southern Africa, and these differences are associated with regional variations in first, the distribution of voters for different “ethnic” or linguistic groups and second, the levels of urbanization and related gender ratios, household sizes and population growth rates.

There is a chapter devoted to each of the seven countries and each is structured in a broadly similar way. The initial section outlines the historical occupation of various regions by different groups and the territorial contests which evolved well before democratic elections. The emergence of political parties before and after independence is then traced. This is followed by a brief discussion of the specific socioeconomic and political contexts of elections conducted in each country, and an analysis of the relationships between voting patterns and demographic variations in each constituency or electoral region. Finally, in four cases the specific circumstances of one particular region is covered in more detail. Also covered is the extent to which regional identities have been adopted and institutionalized and how this determines political allegiances and voting behaviour.

The book concludes with a chapter which draws together the findings for all seven countries in a comprehensive context and explores reasons for similarities and differences. While the basis of the coherence of “ethnic” groups is tenuous, the power of regional ethnic sentiment in mobilizing political support is manifest and is used in portraying broad “nationalisms” in several of the study countries. In these countries, opposition parties with support bases amongst the “minority” groups show that they perceive solidarity in their “otherness”. Amongst the growing number of urbanized voters, ethnic authorities have less influence over their “subjects” than is the case amongst rural people. Tribal affiliations maintained through extended family structures are declining in importance as individuals become absorbed into the urban economies of Southern Africa, and class rather than ethnic solidarity appears to be gaining in prominence in determining urban voting allegiances. These interests