Climate change, floods and homes: understanding location preferences in Indonesia

This working paper focuses on the Bengawan Solo River Side Buffer of Bojonegoro Regency, East Java, Indonesia. This area has frequent floods, and the Bojonegoro Regency has built a levee for flood protection. However, about 1,300 families from 1,100 households have chosen to locate their homes outside the protected area, and this continues to happen from generation to generation. This paper investigates social structures to examine why these populations are choosing to remain in at-risk areas.

The structural equation model shows that all of the communities fear not only flooding but also consequential land losses due to torrential water when the upstream dam is opened. The communities’ priority is sustainably managing their inherited lands rather than their homes. The emotional needs and community groups are significant sub-variables for each of the three categories of vulnerable community in the research area.

The social network analysis shows that low-vulnerability communities can better mobilize their local and extra-local resources to live in flood-prone areas than residents in high- and medium-vulnerability communities. Low-vulnerability communities have stronger networks of interpersonal relationships, stimulated by some prominent residents, and also face the least flood risk. The findings of this study suggest that the choice of residents to remain in flood-prone areas is determined by the strength of their social network. This in turn is influenced by prominent residents and overall community resilience to flood disaster.

Available at http://pubs.iied.org/10730IIED.html?c=urban

Further reading:

López-Marrero, Tania and Petra Tschakert (2011), “From theory to practice: building more resilient communities in flood-prone areas”, Environment and Urbanization Vol 23, No 1, pages 229–249, available at http://eau.sagepub.com/content/23/1/229.abstract.

Sofaniadi, Safrinal, Rusmadi and Aniessa Delima Sari (2015), “Protect, adapt or relocate? Responding to climate change in coastal Indonesia”, Asian Cities Climate Resilience Working Paper Series 14, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 57 pages, available at http://pubs.iied.org/10723IIED.html.

Surmaini, E and E Susanti (2009), “Global climate index and its effect on extreme climate events in Indonesia”, Indonesian Journal of Agriculture Vol 2, No 2, pages 129–136, available at http://pustaka.litbang.pertanian.go.id/publikasi/ja022099.pdf.