Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas; The possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income nations

This paper discusses the possibilities for adaptation to climate change in urban areas in low- and middle-income nations. These contain one-third of the world’s population and a large proportion of the people and economic activities most at risk from sea-level rise and from the heatwaves, storms and floods whose frequency and/or intensity are likely to increase with climate change. Section I outlines both the potential for adaptation and the constraints, while Section II discusses the scale of urban change. Section III considers climate change’s direct and indirect impacts on urban areas and discusses which nations, cities and population groups are particularly at risk. This highlights how prosperous, well-governed cities can generally adapt, at least for the next few decades – assuming global efforts at mitigation successfully halt and then reverse global greenhouse gas emissions. But most of the urban populations in low- and middle-income nations live in cities or in smaller urban centres ill-equipped for adaptation – with weak and ineffective local governments and with very inadequate provision for the infrastructure and services needed to reduce climate change-related risks and vulnerabilities. The text includes a discussion of an adaptation and mitigation agenda for Indian cities from a case study prepared by Aromar Revi (the full text of which will be in the April 2008 issue of Environment & Urbanization).

A key part of adaptation is adapting infrastructure and buildings – but much of the urban population in Africa, Asia and Latin America have no infrastructure to adapt – no all-weather roads, piped water supplies or drains – and live in poor quality housing in floodplains or on slopes at risk of landslides. Most international agencies have long-refused to support urban programmes, especially those that address these problems. Section IV discusses innovations in financial systems and by urban governments and community organizations that address such problems, including the relevance of recent innovations in disaster risk reduction for adaptation. This includes a case study of the adaptation plans developed in Durban, South Africa (based on a case study by Debra Roberts that will be published in a future issue of Environment & Urbanization). But it also notes how few city and national governments are taking any action on adaptation. Section V discusses how local innovation in adaptation can be encouraged and supported at a national scale and the funding needed to support this. Section VI considers the mechanisms for financing this and the larger ethical challenges that achieving adaptation raises – especially the fact that most climate change-related urban (and rural) risks are in low-income nations with the least adaptive capacity, including in many that have contributed very little to greenhouse gas emissions.